How Distrust and Insecurity Shape Vulnerability to Extremist Narratives

The ARENAS project – Analysis of and Responses to Extremist Narratives – brings together researchers, universities, civil society organizations, and communication experts from across Europe to better understand how extremist narratives emerge, spread, and influence democratic societies. Supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe program, the project examines the growing impact of polarisation, distrust, and divisive narratives in contemporary Europe, with particular attention to the themes of nation, gender, and science.

As part of the ARENAS project, Work Package 4 focused on understanding the psychological and social factors that make citizens more susceptible to extremist narratives. Researchers from Latvia, Spain, France, Cyprus, Finland, and other European partner countries worked together to analyze how political distrust, perceived societal threats, economic insecurity, polarisation, and distrust in science influence public attitudes and democratic resilience. The research combined cross-national survey data with experimental methods, yielding one of the most comprehensive analyses in the project.

The findings show that susceptibility to extremist narratives is shaped by multiple factors and develops through the interaction of emotions, social experiences, political environments, and communication ecosystems. The research identified several important drivers that increase vulnerability to polarising narratives:

Low trust in institutions and democratic systems: Research confirms that lower citizen trust in institutions and democratic systems increases openness to extremist narratives, particularly in science, public health, and democratic processes. This pattern was especially visible in France, Spain, and Latvia.

Feelings of societal threat and insecurity: Citizens who perceived threats related to migration, national security, economic instability, or terrorism were significantly more likely to support anti-immigration and polarising narratives across all analyzed countries.

Economic uncertainty and social frustration: particularly in France, lower incomes and economic insecurity are associated with stronger support for extremist narratives and greater distrust of institutions and political systems.

Political polarisation and extremist political positioning: The findings demonstrate that strong political polarisation increases support for extremist narratives, especially among respondents with far-right political views in Spain and Latvia and among politically extreme groups in France.

Distrust in science and expertise: findings show that in Spain and France, respondents who believed conspiracy theories, for example, claims that COVID-19 vaccines contain tracking chips, or who expressed low trust in health institutions and scientific authorities, were more likely to support extremist narratives related to migration, public health, and democratic institutions.

The research also indicates that historical experiences and national contexts continue to shape how people perceive political realities and react to public narratives in different European countries.

According to team leader Rasma Pīpiķe (Creative ideas - Latvia), the international collaboration itself became one of the project’s most valuable experiences: “It was a challenging, but very valuable experience to see how differently various factors affect citizens across countries. Historical experiences continue to shape how people understand events, institutions, and political narratives, and these differences strongly influence people’s attitudes and actions today.”

The ARENAS project demonstrates the importance of evidence-based research in understanding the roots of polarisation and extremism in Europe. At a time when emotionally charged narratives continue to dominate online communication and social, economic, and political debate, strengthening democratic resilience requires a deeper understanding of the psychological, social, and historical dynamics that shape contemporary societies, followed by political responses.

The research was conducted in cooperation with an international ARENAS consortium, including universities, research institutes, and NGOs across Europe. The Latvian contribution to the project is coordinated by the association “Creative Ideas”.

The project is being implemented from May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2027, as part of the EU’s “Horizon Europe” program (2021–2027).

Published: 8th May, 2026

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